Third, these findings should serve as a reminder to policymakers, political commentators, and the general public that Canada is not as divided along regional lines as is commonly imagined. The Alberta NDP recently swept Edmonton and gained 14 of the 26 seats in Calgary in the provincial election. This should call into question the notion that Alberta is a bulwark of conservatism. Doug Ford's political prominence in the Greater Toronto Area should dispel the myth that Toronto is a left-wing monopoly from its downtown center to its sprawling suburbs. It's time to abandon the old regionalist model of national politics Progressive politics, rather than regional or provincial identities, are increasingly defining Canada's main cities. Olivia Chow's election is part of a nationwide trend. The unknown question for her and her conservative opponents is whether her mayoral term strengthens these political changes or drives the city's residents to eventually turn to conservatives for solutions to the problems they have created. What should we conclude from this weekend's odd occurrences in Russia? First and foremost, the failed coup attempt organized by Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin has significantly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin. This Borat-like character has revealed how fragile Putin's hold on power is, as well as how his failed war in Ukraine has produced profound splits in the Russian military that are now manifesting as outright rebellion.
Key insight: There is no way for Prigozhin to get thousands
of his heavily armed soldiers within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow in a matter of hours without high-level coordination between Wagner forces and Russian military elements. Simply put, this was not a "March for Justice" organized by a single, unhinged, and outraged mercenary CEO. The conspicuous lack of armed resistance by Russian Army formations or the Russian Air Force strongly suggests that Prigozhin must have had some combination of tacit and active support from leading Russian generals who are deeply dissatisfied with the war and its mismanagement by Putin and his likely soon-to-be-deceased defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Don't take my word for it. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Putin, stated that current events align with a well-planned coup d'etat and the involvement of former elite military personnel in the mutiny. Emphasis mine. In short, Putin's regime has experienced a near-death experience. Regardless of what efforts Putin takes now to consolidate power, the spell of omnipotence he successfully built and wielded as Russia's supreme leader over the last two decades is irreparably destroyed. More concerning for Putin and his circle, the so-called silovikior or enforcers, is that the same problems inside this military that allowed Prigozhin to get within striking distance of Moscow are expected to resurface this weekend, festering and threatening his rule as supreme leader at any time.
The second important result of Russia's last 48 hours
of instability is a quick and long-term shift in how Western countries view the future of the Ukrainian conflict. Up until last weekend, the Biden administration and their NATO partners could give real credence to vows that the Ukraine military would continue to be armed regardless of the outcome or development of the present counteroffensive. This has changed. The United States and Europe are understandably concerned about the geopolitical tragedy that would result from Russia's quick collapse. The globe avoided this bullet in the late 1990s. Today, as then, it represents a true polycrisis, involving the immediate risk of losing command and control over tactical nuclear weapons to self-appointed warlords like Ramzan Kadyrov; the rush of regional powers such as Turkey, China, and Iran into a power vacuum, all bent on expanding their spheres of influence by pitting former republics against each other; and a proliferation nightmare in which some Russian republics inevitably commandeer strategic nuclear arsenals. The collapse of the Russian Federation would not be only a "risk-on" event for the region. It has the potential to become a multi-decade risk premia that the liberal international order cannot sustain, sapping the few resources available to fund the global coordination required to combat complex challenges ranging from climate change to artificial intelligence to pandemics. The last thing the West wants to do is add to the insurmountable task of picking up the pieces of a broken Russia.
The third development from the weekend is that the world
has taken another step toward breaking the 75-year ban on the use of nuclear weapons. The Russian doctrine on the first use of a nuclear bomb, whether tactical or strategic, is unequivocal. It must involve an attack "which threatens the existence of the state itself." This weekend illustrates, unequivocally, a fatal link for the Russian leadership between the conflict overseas and the demise of the state at home. And, rest assured, for Putin and his supporters, the regime is the state.This is not to suggest that Putin will now use a nuclear bomb. It is rather to point out that we are getting closer, in terms of context, to the point where Moscow may be willing to use nuclear weapons in order to "de-escalate" and quickly end the war, allowing loyal military elements to be redeployed to the homefront to protect against another insurgency.
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